NFL Week 4 Analytical Quarterback Rankings: Tua Tagovailoa remains on top, Trevor Lawrence rounds out top three

NFL Week 4 Analytical Quarterback Rankings: Tua Tagovailoa remains on top, Trevor Lawrence rounds out top three
NFL Week 4 Analytical Quarterback Rankings: Tua Tagovailoa remains on top, Trevor Lawrence rounds out top three

• Who else but Tua? Tua Tagovailoa ranked first at the position in completion rate (88.5%), yards per attempt (11.9) and EPA per play (1.2). He avoided mistakes all game, finishing with no interceptions or turnover-worthy plays.

• Russ gives it his best: Russell Wilson earned a league-leading 84.6 passing grade under pressure in his team’s devastating loss at the hands of the Dolphins. He completed eight of his 17 attempts under pressure for 134 yards, one touchdown, six first downs and one unlucky interception.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF’s Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Quarterback is the most important position on the field, but we can often get stuck in their most recent blunders or successes, making it difficult to come up with an objective ranking.

This analysis utilizes a statistical technique called Bayesian Updating. With Bayesian Updating, we can use individual results to project PFF grades and expected points added (EPA) per play. You can find a more detailed explanation of the analysis in our Week 2 quarterback rankings.

Here is how the league’s quarterbacks stack up after Week 3.

2023 Week 4 Analytical Quarterback Rankings

Most efficient passer: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

It goes without saying that Tagovailoa blew most other quarterbacks out of the water this week — his team dropped 70 points on the Denver Broncos, and his offense is on pace to have a record-breaking season.

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The Dolphins quarterback ranked first at the position in completion rate (88.5%), yards per attempt (11.9) and EPA per play (1.2). He avoided mistakes all game, finishing with no interceptions or turnover-worthy plays.

Explosive passer: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

This week, Tannehill had the biggest big-time throw rate at 11.1% and finished the game with no turnover-worthy plays or interceptions.

The Titans quarterback threw the ball 10.1 yards down the field on average, going 13-of-25 for 104 yards and three big-time throws, with 76 passing yards coming from passes thrown 10 yards or more downfield.

Best under pressure: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Wilson earned a league-leading 84.6 passing grade under pressure in his team’s devastating loss at the hands of the Dolphins. He completed eight of his 17 attempts under pressure for 134 yards, one touchdown, six first downs and one unlucky interception. His 18 pressured dropbacks featured three big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.

Best out of the pocket: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen earned the highest passing grade (91.3) and generated the third-most EPA per pass play (1.180) on throws outside the pocket. He tallied one big-time throw and no turnover-worthy plays.

Quick passes: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence had the highest passing grade (89.3) and was fifth in passing yards (193) with less than 2.5 seconds to throw. He avoided any interceptions by being accurate, as his 82.8% adjusted completion rate on quick throws was one of the best marks of the week.

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