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Is Patrick Mahomes having the worst season of his career? The numbers say so

One of the more notable storylines that has arisen during the 2023 NFL season has been the inconsistency and lack of explosiveness from the Kansas City Chiefs offense. The Chiefs are currently 8-3 and the 2nd seed in the AFC, but they’ve largely gotten there on the back of an elite defense that has given up the second-fewest points in the league.

In the Chiefs’ three losses, they were held to 20, 9 and 17 points. They’ve had wins where the offense has only put up 17, 19, 21 and 23 points. It’s something we have rarely seen in the Patrick Mahomes era.

Why is the Chiefs offense struggling so much?

There could be several factors for the drop-off in offensive production for the Chiefs. One could be that with the defense being so good, the team is not put into shootout games where the offense has to carry the load. Another could be the departure of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who was with the team in that position from 2018 to 2022.

But the one that’s been most visible has been the poor play from the team’s wide receivers. Mid-20s wideouts Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman have hardly made any impact. Veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling has consistently struggled with drops.

Rookie Rashee Rice has been the team’s best receiver, but still hasn’t played more than 68% of the snaps in any game so far. Justin Watson has made plays, but he’s not someone defenses fear on a consistent basis.

Patrick Mahomes’ 2023 season by the numbers

All of those factors have resulted in Mahomes not playing like the dominant force he has been for the past five years. By nearly every metric except for completion percentage and sack percentage, Mahomes is currently in the midst of his worst season as a starter.

These are his numbers over the past six seasons in which he has been the starter, including 2023.

  • 2023: 5.1 TD%, 2.2 INT%, 7.1 AY/A, 49.6 Passing Success Rate, 96.3 Passer Rating
  • 2022: 6.3 TD%, 1.9 INT%, 8.5 AY/A, 54.6 Passing Success Rate, 105.2 Passer Rating
  • 2021: 5.6 TD%, 2.0 INT%, 7.6 AY/A, 53.2 Passing Success Rate, 98.5 Passer Rating
  • 2020: 6.5 TD%, 1.0 INT%, 8.9 AY/A, 54.1 Passing Success Rate, 108.2 Passer Rating
  • 2019: 5.4 TD%, 1.0 INT%, 8.9 AY/A, 50.9 Passing Success Rate, 105.3 Passer Rating
  • 2018: 8.6 TD%, 2.1 INT%, 9.6 AY/A, 54.1 Passing Success Rate, 113.8 Passer Rating

In a testament to Mahomes’ greatness, despite the down year in terms of statistics, he’s actually second in NFL MVP odds. His worst season is better than the best season of all but a few quarterbacks.

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