The 2009 NFL season is still more than four months away yet one of the biggest events in the league’s calendar begins on Saturday in New York’s Radio City Music Hall. More than five million US households will tune into live television coverage of the NFL draft, despite the fact the selection process itself is about as enthralling as a lecture on paint-drying techniques (trust me, I’ve been). As well as looking out for their own teams’ selections, many armchair fans will also be scanning down their own mock drafts, checking to see if their assessments of this years’ prospects match up with those of the professional NFL scouts.
For the second year running, I shall be among them. Here’s how I expect the first round to unfold:
1) Detroit Lions – needs: when a team goes 0-16, I’m inclined to say “most positions” …
Pick: Matthew Stafford – quarterback, Georgia
At time of writing this was not yet a done deal but the Lions have been negotiating the terms of a contract with Stafford’s agents for the past three days. Linebacker Aaron Curry might have been a safer bet but Stafford is strong-armed and accurate enough to become franchise quarterback if handled with patience. If he is thrust straight into a starting role with a poor supporting cast, though, his career could be over before it begins.
2) St Louis Rams – needs: offensive tackle, wide receiver, linebacker, defensive tackle, cornerback
Pick: Jason Smith – OT, Baylor
The Rams will also consider Curry here, but they currently have just one full-time offensive tackle, Alex Barron, on their roster and must address the position early. The big question is whether they rate Smith, a converted tight end, more highly than Virginia’s Eugene Monroe.
3) Kansas City Chiefs – needs: pass-rushing LB, DT, tight end, OT, safety
Pick: Aaron Curry – LB, Wake Forest
New Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli will try to trade down and stockpile picks, but will settle for Curry if he can’t. Although not a natural pass-rusher, and therefore not an ideal fit in Kansas City’s new 3-4 defence, Curry is the most talented player in the draft.
4) Seattle Seahawks – needs: WR, CB, OT, QB, S
Pick: Michael Crabtree – WR, Texas Tech
Despite signing TJ Houshmandzadeh, Seattle still need more help at receiver, and head coach Jim Mora is said to be a keen admirer of Crabtree. Many expect them to take USC quarterback Mark Sanchez here, to develop as Matt Hasselbeck’s long-term successor, but team president Tim Ruskell has always been reluctant to draft quarterbacks who do not have several years’ starting experience in the past.
5) Cleveland Browns – needs: OT, WR, pass-rushing LB, CB
Pick: Brian Orakpo – DE, Texas
The Browns finally found a Pro Bowl nose tackle last year in Shaun Rogers but for their 3-4 defence to work they must improve a pass rush that produced just 17 sacks. Orakpo played end in college but is fast and athletic enough to become an effective outside linebacker in such a system.
6) Cincinnati Bengals – needs: OT, WR, DT, running back, S
Pick: Eugene Monroe – OT, Virginia
With starting right tackle Stacy Andrews having departed for the Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati’s offensive line looks extremely thin. The Bengals would be delighted with either Monroe or Jason Smith should they fall this far.
7) Oakland Raiders – needs: WR, DT, LB, OT, S
Pick: Jeremy Maclin – WR, Missouri
For once, the player Oakland need most and the player that owner Al Davis would have demanded anyway are one and the same. Davis loves speed and Maclin is as explosive as they come.
8) Jacksonville Jaguars – needs: WR, OT, LB, DT, QB
Pick: BJ Raji – DT, Boston College
If USC quarterback Mark Sanchez is still on the board at this point then Jacksonville will get plenty of offers to trade this pick. If they stay put then Raji, the best defensive tackle in this class, would be a good fit.
9) Green Bay Packers – needs: DE, pass-rushing LB, OT, CB
Pick: Andre Smith – OT, Alabama
Whoever picks Smith will be taking a gamble. After letting himself get horribly out of shape this summer, Smith quite simply walked out halfway through the Scouting Combine, and only looked marginally better at subsequent private work-outs. But Green Bay need a right tackle and Smith has all the physical tools to become a great one if he applies himself like he did during his college career.
10) San Francisco 49ers – needs: OT, QB, pass rushing LB, S, RB
Pick: Mark Sanchez – QB, USC
It is almost certain that someone, maybe even the 49ers themselves, will trade up to take Sanchez before he fell this far. If not, San Francisco would be delighted to have a player who many scouts believe could have gone No1 overall in 2010 had he returned to college for his senior year.
11) Buffalo Bills – needs: OT, guard, DE, tight end, LB, RB
Pick: Everette Brown – DE, Florida State
Only three teams recorded fewer sacks than the Bills last year. Although Brown is slightly undersized, he should be capable of playing as a down lineman in the NFL.
12) Denver Broncos – needs: DE, pass rushing LB, RB, QB, CB
Pick: Tyson Jackson – DE, LSU
Another team converting to a 3-4 defence, Denver need pass-rushing linebackers but also the sort of tall, powerful defensive end that can line up directly over a tackle and take up blockers in the running game. Jackson is the best of the latter in this class.
13) Washington Redskins – needs: DE, OT, LB, WR, CB
Pick: Robert Ayers – DE, Tennessee
Word has it that the Redskins are one of the teams looking to trade up and snag Sanchez, but defensive end would appear a more glaring need than quarterback after they released Jason Taylor. If they don’t move then Ayers, whose stock is rising after some impressive work-outs, would make sense here.
14) New Orleans Saints – needs: CB, RB, S, LB
Pick: Malcolm Jenkins – CB, Ohio State
Some pundits have argued that Jenkins will have to move to safety in the NFL because he lacks the speed to play at cornerback. Thankfully for him the Saints need help at both spots.
15) Houston Texans – needs: CB, LB, S, DT, WR
Pick: Clay Matthews – LB, USC
Two other USC linebackers – Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga – are ranked slightly higher by some other teams but there’s not much in it and Matthews’s uncle, Bruce, just happens to be on the Texans’ coaching staff.
16) San Diego Chargers – needs: OT, LB, G, DE, S
Pick: Michael Oher – OT, Ole Miss
There is a significant drop-off in talent at tackle behind Oher, and the Chargers are keen to replace Jeromey Clary on the right side of the line. Maualuga is also a strong possibility here, though.
17) New York Jets – needs: QB, WR, DE, TE,
Pick: Josh Freeman – QB, Kansas State
Freeman may well not last this long, especially if another team trades ahead of San Francisco to take Sanchez. He is a better athlete than either Stafford or Sanchez, but doesn’t read the game nearly as well at this stage.
18) Denver Broncos (from Chicago Bears) – needs: DE, pass rushing LB, QB, S CB
Pick: Chris “Beanie” Wells – RB, Ohio State
Denver have a number of running backs on their roster already but none is an obvious starter. Although the Broncos’ defensive concerns are more pressing, they may decide Wells is too good to pass up at this point.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – needs: LB, DT, DE, QB
Pick: Peria Jerry – DT, Ole Miss
New defensive co-ordinator Jim Bates is keen to shore up his team’s run defence and Jerry’s stock is rising as the second-best defensive tackle in this draft after Raji.
20) Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys) – needs: See first pick
Pick: Brian Cushing – LB, USC
With so many holes to fill, Detroit really might as well go with the best-value pick available, which at this stage would be Cushing.
21) Philadelphia Eagles – needs: RB, TE, WR, S
Pick: Knowshon Moreno – RB, Georgia
Brian Westbrook remains one of the best backs in the league but he will turn 30 before the season starts and has never managed to stay healthy for an entire season. Moreno is powerful but also elusive and could even extend Westbrook’s career by helping to share the load.
22) Minnesota Vikings – needs: OT, WR, CB, QB
Pick: Eben Britton – OT Arizona
The Vikings are desperate to upgrade at right tackle after failing to find a new starter during free agency and though Britton’s stock is falling he remains a first-round talent.
23) New England Patriots – needs: LB, CB, S, FB
Pick: Rey Maualuga – LB, USC
The Patriots have already addressed the weaknesses in their secondary in free agency, meaning they could go in a number of directions with this pick, but Maualuga would represent good value and could eventually succeed Tedy Bruschi in the middle.
24) Atlanta Falcons – needs: DT, S, LB, DE
Pick: Aaron Maybin – DE, Penn State
Most people had the Falcons taking Oklahoma State tight end Brandon Pettigrew with this pick, before they acquired Tony Gonzalez yesterday in a trade with Kansas City. With that position addressed, the next concern will be upgrading the defensive line. Tackle is a more pressing need than end but Maybin offers far more upside than any of the interior players left on the board.
25) Miami Dolphins – needs: WR, DT, pass-rushing LB, CB
Pick: Darius Butler – CB, Connecticut
A receiver would be the more obvious pick but Bill Parcells is neither a fan of doing the obvious nor taking offensive players in the first round. Butler may be less naturally gifted than Vontae Davis of Illinois, but he is also smarter and a natural leader.
26) Baltimore Ravens – needs: CB, WR, LB, S
Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey – WR, Maryland
Quarterback Joe Flacco wants an explosive deep threat and Heyward-Bey, who stands 6ft 2in and boasts a 40-yard dash time of 4.3secs, would certainly provide one. It doesn’t hurt that he grew up down the road from the Ravens’ practice facility, either.
27) Indianapolis Colts – needs: DT, LB, WR, RB
Pick: Evander “Ziggy” Hood – DT, Missouri
Hood probably wouldn’t merit a first-round pick for any other team but last year the Colts’ defensive tackles combined for two sacks. Both of those came from Darrell Reid, who has since joined the Denver Broncos.
28) Buffalo Bills (from Carolina Panthers, through Philadelphia Eagles) – needs: OT, guard, TE, DE, LB, RB
Pick: Brandon Pettigrew – TE, Oklahoma State
Nobody will be happier about the Saints’ decision to make a trade for Gonzalez than Buffalo. Pettigrew is the only tight end in this draft worthy of first-round consideration.
29) New York Giants – needs: WR, LB, TE, OT
Pick: Kenny Britt – WR, Rutgers
Britt is not as fast or explosive as some of the other receivers in this class, but he is 6ft 3in tall and has a safe pair of hands. With Plaxico Burress gone, Giants quarterback Eli Manning badly needs another big, reliable target that he can use as a safety valve when under pressure.
30) Tennessee Titans – needs: DT, WR, LB, CB
Pick: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Harvin – who already had a couple of red flags against his name – may well drop out of the first round altogether after testing positive for marijuana at the Scouting Combine. On the other hand, Tennessee may decide to take a risk on a player who meets a need and is also one of the most talented at his position in this draft.
31) Arizona Cardinals – needs: RB, TE, LB, DE
Pick: Donald Brown – RB, Connecticut
Rookie Tim Hightower rushed for 10 touchdowns last year but also averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. With JJ Arrington gone, and Edgerrin James likely to follow suit, they will need to bring in someone and Brown is the obvious choice with Wells and Moreno already off the board.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers – needs: CB, OT, G, DE
Pick: Alex Mack – centre, California
Although he played centre at California, Mack is versatile and would provide solid depth for Pittsburgh at any of the interior line positions. Don’t ask him about his secret world, though.