2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Odds

2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Odds
2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Odds

Image credit: (Photo by Mary DeCicco/Getty Images)

The Guardians won the MLB Draft Lottery on Tuesday night and will pick first in the 2024 MLB Draft, a stunning result considering the Guardians entered with just a 2% chance of winning the lottery.

The Athletics, Royals and Rockies all had an 18.3% chance to receive the first overall pick, the highest odds of any team.

The Nationals pay into revenue sharing and had a lottery pick in the 2023 draft (where they picked No. 2 overall and selected Dylan Crews). Under CBA rules they were not eligible to have a lottery selection in back-to-back drafts and will pick 10th.

Additionally, teams that exceed the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax—which is $273 million for the 2023 season—will have its first overall pick dropped 10 spots unless it gets a top six pick in the lottery. If a team that exceeds that threshold does secure a lottery (top six) pick, its second-highest pick is dropped 10 spots.

The Mets, Padres and Yankees had payrolls that triggered this 10-spot penalty, though none of the three secured a lottery pick and so will pick at Nos. 19, 24 and 25, respectively.

The draft order for the 12 playoff teams is determined by a combination of their finish in the postseason, revenue sharing status of the club and reverse order of winning percentage during the regular season.

Here is the draft order with full results from the lottery.

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2024 MLB Draft Order

1. Cleveland Guardians2. Cincinnati Reds3. Colorado Rockies4. Oakland Athletics5. Chicago White Sox6. Kansas City Royals7. St. Louis Cardinals8. Los Angeles Angels9. Pittsburgh Pirates10. Washington Nationals11. Detroit Tigers12. Boston Red Sox13. San Francisco Giants14. Chicago Cubs15. Seattle Mariners16. Miami Marlins17. Milwaukee Brewers18. Tampa Bay Rays19. New York Mets20. Toronto Blue Jays21. Minnesota Twins22. Baltimore Orioles23. Los Angeles Dodgers24. Atlanta Braves25. San Diego Padres26. New York Yankees27. Philadelphia Phillies28. Houston Astros29. Arizona Diamondbacks30. Texas Rangers

Below were the 2024 lottery odds for each non-playoff team for the first overall pick entering the draft lottery.

2024 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

TeamOdds

Clubs that lose in the Wild Card Series will select before clubs that lose in the Division Series, and clubs that lose in the Division Series will select before clubs that lose in the League Championship Series, and so on. Each year the team that wins the World Series will receive the last pick of the first round, as well as all subsequent rounds.

Within each group of postseason rounds, draft order will be determined first by revenue sharing status (payee clubs will pick before non-payee clubs) and then in reverse order of regular season winning percentage.

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